Expected goals changed everything. Before xG, a 1-0 win was a 1-0 win. After xG, we learned to see the game beneath the game — the probabilistic reality that the scoreline often obscures.
This season’s xG data tells stories the table cannot. Teams outperforming their xG are living on borrowed time. Teams underperforming are better than their points suggest. The truth, as always, is in the numbers.
Season Overview
The biggest xG overperformers this season are, statistically speaking, the teams most likely to regress. History shows us that xG overperformance of more than 5 goals over a season reverts to the mean with 87% reliability. The beautiful cruelty of regression awaits.
Meanwhile, the underperformers — the teams creating quality chances but failing to convert — are the smart money picks for next season. Their process is sound; only their finishing has been unlucky.